at and t cellular: What OSINT saw overnight

Polygraph by Polymarket

January 21st, 2026

Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. The situations we are monitoring this morning:

Top Stories

Iran

OSINT Twitter was buzzing overnight about a series of U.S. tanker flights heading across the Atlantic. Odds for a U.S. Strike on Iran in the coming months rose sharply on the news.

American Football

Seattle's odds to win the Super Bowl nearly doubled following their 41-6 blowout of the 49ers last week. The Seahawks continue to look dominant heading into the NFC East Championship against the Rams on Sunday.

Check odds →

Tariff Punt?

Odds have collapsed for the Supreme Court to issue a ruling this month on the Trump tariffs. Attention is now focusing on mid-February for a possible decision.

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Wallet Watch

Betwick

One of Polymarket's sharpest geopolitical traders, @betwick, has been aggressively fading U.S. Iran strike polymarkets across Q1.

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Breaking News

Odds

Will 'Don't Be Dumb' debut week album sales be at least 200k?

View market →

6%

-59%

Will Donald Trump not announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve before February 2026?

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64%

+17%

Will Grok 4.20 not be released by January 31, 2026?

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87%

+12%

See all Breaking →

Ending Soon

Ends In

Oscars 2026: Best Director Nominations

12h

Oscars 2026: Best Picture Nominations

12h

Oscars 2026: Best Actor Nominations

12h

Internet access restored in Iran by Friday?

1d

See all Ending Soon →

New

Listed

Which countries will join the Board of Peace by March 31?

9h ago

Kalshi stops offering sports event contracts in Massachusetts by Jan 31?

9h ago

Who will Trump shake hands with at Davos?

13h ago

See all New →

Hot Polymarkets

24H Volume

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

$9.17M

Fed decision in January?

$8.29M

Presidential Election Winner 2028

$2.34M

Portugal Presidential Election

$1.14M

See all Hot Polymarkets →

Top Sports

Starts In

La Liga Winner

128d

Rams vs. Seahawks

4d

Red Wings vs. Maple Leafs

12h

2026 NBA Champion

160d

See all Top Sports →

Last Word

What C-Suites and Wall Street are reading

Semafor Business delivers sharp, deeply sourced reporting on the forces shaping global markets. Penned by Liz Hoffman — one of Wall Street's best sourced reporters — it offers behind-the-scenes insight, smart analysis, and the kind of scoops senior executives and market insiders rely on.