Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. The situations we are monitoring this morning:
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Could Trump and Venezuelan opposition figure María Corina Machado share last year's Nobel Peace Prize? On Monday night, Machado appeared on Hannity and made the offer. Then, last night, Trump told Hannity he'll meet Machado next week and "that would be a great honor," which sent odds soaring. Although the Nobel Committee says prizes can't be officially transferred, this polymarket resolves "Yes" if both Trump and Machado say they are sharing the prize.
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The Shah is Back in Town?
The death toll from Iran's nationwide protests has now passed 50. According to some reports, demonstrators are chanting for the return of Iran's exiled crown prince Reza Pahlavi. Odds are rising for the U.S. to recognize him as leader of Iran, despite the fact that Trump has not come close to formally endorsing him. "Let everybody go out there and see who emerges," Trump said last night.
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Streams Cross in Portugal?
Odds for right wing candidate Luís Marques Mendes to win Portugal's election have been cut in half this week as new polls show him in fifth place and losing most runoff matchups. The first round of voting is on January 18th.
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Breaking News
Odds
Odds of Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31 over 50% by January 16?
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11%
-18%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 11, 2026?
We're teaming up with Delphi Digital to launch new prediction markets on the future of stablecoins, payments, on-chain trading, and other trends in the crypto markets.
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