at and t cellular: Russian sub escalates Venezuela tanker standoff

Russian sub escalates Venezuela tanker standoff

Wednesday, January 7, 2026

Polygraph by Polymarket

Polygraph by Polymarket

January 7th, 2026

Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. The situations we are monitoring this morning:

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Tanker Trouble

A naval standoff is brewing in the Atlantic. A Russian sub is now escorting shadow fleet tanker Marinera (Formerly Bella 1) after it repelled a U.S. boarding attempt in late December. Moscow is demanding the Coast Guard call off its pursuit. Odds the vessel is seized by Friday are dropping, but odds of another Venezuela-linked tanker seizure this month remain significant.

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A Gift

Yesterday Trump posted that Venezuela will be handing over 30-50 million barrels of oil directly to the United States. This amounts to roughly 10% of the country's annual production. Although the odds have fallen slightly, traders expect the transfer to be formalized this month.

Oil Production Boom?

Venezuela sits on the world's largest oil reserves but pumps just 1 million barrels a day, down from 3.5 million in the 90s. How high will it go this year? Polymarket traders are forecasting a 10-30% bump in production by year-end.

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posted by June Lesley at 4:49 AM

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