Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. The situations we are monitoring this morning:
Top Stories
¡Rubio!
Marco Rubio's profile has dramatically increased following the weekend's Venezuela operation, and so have his 2028 chances. Odds for Rubio to become the 2028 Republican nominee have doubled in recent days. Interestingly, this move has not come at the expense of Vance. The biggest losers from Rubio's rise have been Ron DeSantis, and Donald Trumps, Jr and Sr.
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Khamenei Packing his Bags?
Odds for Iran's Supreme Leader to leave power in 2026 are up 30% in the last week as mass protests have spread to several major cities. But the bigger repricing is around Israel and America's appetite to get involved militarily. Odds for an Israeli strike on Iran by end of June spiked above 50% yesterday.
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Who Runs Venezuela?
With Maduro in U.S. custody, Vice President Delcy Rodríguez has been sworn in with military backing and has emerged as the favorite to control the country through 2026. Other leading candidates include Edmundo González, the rightful winner of the 2024 election, and recent Nobel Prize winner María Corina Machado. Trump has stated that Washington will be truly "running" the country during a transition, and there is no firm date for elections yet.
