at and t cellular: Spice must flow

Spice must flow

Tuesday, March 3, 2026

Polygraph by Polymarket

Polygraph by Polymarket

March 3rd, 2026

Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. What we're monitoring today:

Top News

Top news image

Spice must flow

Odds of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz are spiking after Iran struck several vessels in the narrow waterway. In this case, Polymarket rules define closure as an 80% or greater drop in the 7 day moving average of vessel transits.

Quick Links

Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? →

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June? →

Top news image

Blexas

Texas's Democratic Senate primary is today. James Talarico is heavily favored on Polymarket despite Nate Silver only giving him a slight edge in a recent piece. Polls actually show Jasmine Crockett ahead, but they were taken before Talarico's Colbert interview went viral with 9 million views.

Quick Links

Texas Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory →

Wallet Watch

Wallet Watch image

@kcnyekchno

Nate thinks Crockett may be value in Texas. But the largest Talrico "Yes" holder has made over $832,812 in profits since starting his account in July of 2025...

View Wallet →

Breaking News

Odds

Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by March 15?

View market →

73%

+3%

Anduril IPO before 2027?

View market →

27%

-3%

US seizes an Iran-linked oil tanker by March 7?

View market →

13%

-35%

See all Breaking →

Ending Soon

Ends In

Next Prime Minister of Nepal

1d

Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 7?

3d

Nepal House of Representatives Election Winner

1d

See all Ending Soon →

New

Listed

Will the Virginia abortion protection amendment pass?

12h ago

Will Michigan vote to rewrite the state Constitution?

12h ago

Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?

13h ago

See all New →

Hot Polymarkets

24H Volume

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

$9.86M

Fed decision in March?

$5.05M

Presidential Election Winner 2028

$4.65M

See all Hot Polymarkets →

Top Sports

Starts In

LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs

4h

F1 Drivers' Champion

277d

NBA Eastern Conference Champion

104d

See all Top Sports →

Whale Moves

"No" Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?

schizohedgehog

Whale move image

See all Whale Moves →

Polymarket

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posted by June Lesley at 3:59 AM

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