at and t cellular: Schrodinger's Ayatollah

Polygraph by Polymarket

March 4th, 2026

Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. What we're monitoring today:

Top News

Schrodinger's Ayatollah

Media reports emerged yesterday that Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Iran's former Supreme Leader, had been selected to succeed him. But within hours, other accounts suggested this was premature, or active disinformation, causing Mojtaba odds to plummet from the mid 80s. He's still the front runner but far from a sure thing.

Blexas Denied?

James Talrico handily won the Texas Democratic Senate primary last night, leading current tallies over Jasmine Crockett by 7-8%. But does the market see him as less electable? Odds for Democrats to flip the Texas Senate blue are down ~5% on the news.

Wallet Watch

Yolo-kin

On the Republican side, Texas's long‑serving Senator John Cornyn overperformed against the state's MAGA attorney general, Ken Paxton. They are headed for a runoff on May 26 since neither cleared 50%. @Yalokin is the largest single Cornyn "Yes" holder. He's already up 80%, and will turn $8,000 into $32,522 if Cornyn wins in May.

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