at and t cellular: Ceasefire slipping, crude ripping

Polygraph by Polymarket

March 8th, 2026

Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. What we're watching today:

Top News

Ceasefire Slipping

Odds for a U.S.- Iran ceasefire are dropping across all timeframes. Over the weekend, Israel hit massive oil storage tanks near Tehran, and Iran and the Gulf states traded attacks on desalination plants.

Quick Links

Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? →

US forces enter Iran? →

$120

Crude oil futures are soaring. Polymarket traders project WTI oil will exceed $120 / barrel by the end of March. $150 oil by June is a coin toss.

Quick Links

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit $150 by end of June? →

Schrödinger's Kristi Noem

Trump fired Kristi Noem as DHS secretary last week. But she's not out of the administration entirely... She's moving to a new gig as Special Envoy for the "Shield of the Americas," a Western Hemisphere anti-cartel program. Polymarket traders think she's on thin ice, even in the new role.

Breaking News

Odds

Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?

View market →

77%

+5%

Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?

View market →

66%

+5%

Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?

View market →

52%

+1%

See all Breaking →

Ending Soon

Ends In

Colombia Chamber of Representatives Election Winner

8h

"Scream 7" Second Weekend Box Office

1d

See all Ending Soon →

New

Listed

McDonald's CEO out by June 30?

1d ago

#1 song on US Spotify this week? (March 13)

1d ago

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?

1d ago

See all New →

Hot Polymarkets

24H Volume

Fed decision in March?

$20.39M

Paris Mayoral Election

$4.50M

Next Supreme Leader of Iran?

$4.38M

See all Hot Polymarkets →

Top Sports

Starts In

English Premier League Winner

79d

La Liga Winner

82d

LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs

3h

F1 Drivers' Champion

272d

See all Top Sports →

Top Comments

Last Word

The Doomberg Interview

Doomberg, a pseudonymous team of former commodity execs writes one of the most popular Substacks on energy and geopolitics. We talk energy implications of Iran's missile war and where the next domino may drop.