at and t cellular: Are you OK Gavin?

Polygraph by Polymarket

March 18th, 2026

Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. What we're watching today:

Top News

Are you OK Gavin?

Gavin Newsom's 2028 nomination odds have been slipping from a high of 40% in early November. Where is his support going? If you squint, you'll see GA Senator Jon Ossoff up a couple points, but mostly it seems Newsom is losing ground to a widening field of long shots.

Israel likely to invade Lebanon

Traders are increasingly confident that Israel will soon invade southern Lebanon. "We are going to do what we did in Gaza," a senior Israeli official told Axios, referring to the destruction of buildings and tunnels that Hezbollah uses to store weapons and launch strikes.

Back to business

The World Baseball Classic finished up Tuesday with Venezuela upsetting the U.S., but now it's time to refocus on the upcoming MLB season. The Dodgers are favorites with a 29% chance to win their third straight championship, more than 3.5x that of the next-best team, the Yankees.

Wallet Watch

Netanyahu Out?

X has been buzzing with rumors and dodgy videos implying that Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu may be out of commission. This trader is holding strong despite already being down a luxury SUV.

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