at and t cellular: A widening regional war

A widening regional war

Monday, March 2, 2026

Polygraph by Polymarket

Polygraph by Polymarket

March 2nd, 2026

Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. What we're monitoring today:

Top News

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Whoops

As Operation Epic Fury enters its third day, the polymarket on Iran's next Supreme Leader remains volatile. Trump has called on Iranians to overthrow the regime, but also told a reporter that the candidates he was considering, presumably Islamic Republic insiders, had been killed in the initial strikes.

Quick Links

US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? →

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? →

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A Widening Regional War

Iran has responded with drone and missile attacks on Israel, all six Gulf Arab states, Jordan, Iraq, nearby maritime targets, and U.S. assets in the region. In Lebanon, Hezbollah has begun firing missiles into Israel opening the northern front in support of Tehran.

Quick Links

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? →

Which countries will strike Iran by March 31? →

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Boots on the Ground?

While still not a base case, odds for this to turn into a U.S. ground invasion have doubled since the start of the conflict.

Breaking News

Odds

US seizes an Iran-linked oil tanker by March 7?

View market →

47%

-1%

Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by February 28?

View market →

99%

+1%

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?

View market →

94%

+5%

See all Breaking →

Ending Soon

Ends In

Texas Democratic Senate Primary Winner

12h

Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner

12h

What will be the top US Netflix show this week?

12h

See all Ending Soon →

New

Listed

Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?

15h ago

Who will enter Iran by June 30?

15h ago

Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?

16h ago

See all New →

Hot Polymarkets

24H Volume

US x Iran ceasefire by...?

$3.43M

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

$3.19M

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

$2.46M

See all Hot Polymarkets →

Top Sports

Starts In

NBA MVP

99d

LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs

3h

2026 NHL Stanley Cup Champion

119d

See all Top Sports →

Whale Moves

"No" Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

AML

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See all Whale Moves →

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posted by June Lesley at 4:25 AM

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