at and t cellular: Claude, topple the Ayatollah. Make no mistakes

Polygraph by Polymarket

February 27th, 2026

Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. What we're monitoring today:

Top News

No Deal

Odds of a near-term U.S. strike on Iran are spiking on reports that the U.S. Embassy in Israel is urging immediate evacuation and China is calling on all its citizens to leave Iran.

What Claude Knows

Anthropic has rejected a demand by the Pentagon to remove limitations on use for autonomous weapons and mass surveillance. But Polymarket traders are skeptical Hegseth will follow through on his demand to break the Anthropic contract.

Wallet Watch

Wolfmoon

It's two weeks out from the Oscars, and we're on the hunt for Polymarket's sharpest pop culture traders. @wolfmoon typically trades European politics, but is now fully positioned for the Oscars, with over $14k on One Battle After Another to win Best Picture.

View Wallet →

Breaking News

Odds

Will the 2026 trade deficit be less than 500B?

View market →

46%

+2%

Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by March 15?

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81%

+12%

GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?

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3%

-25%

See all Breaking →

Ending Soon

Ends In

Largest Company End of February?

12h

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?

12h

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

12h

See all Ending Soon →

New

Listed

Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?

13h ago

Trump declares election interference national emergency?

14h ago

New Trump executive order to restrict voting by March 31?

14h ago

See all New →

Top Sports

Starts In

Nets vs. Celtics

12h

2026 NHL Stanley Cup Champion

122d

Sabres vs. Panthers

12h

See all Top Sports →

Top Comments

Last Word

Supreme Court Play-by-Play

Last Friday, the Supreme Court struck down Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs 6-3. But if you'd been watching Polymarket on November 5th, the day of the oral arguments, you wouldn't have been surprised. We pinpoint the exact moments during the hearing where the tariff case fell apart.