Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. The situations we are monitoring this morning:
Top Stories
Greenland
Odds for the U.S. to acquire Greenland this year have doubled in recent days. Hours after Maduro was captured, top White House aide Stephen Miller's wife posted a U.S. flag over Greenland with the caption "SOON." Denmark warned Trump to "stop the threats," with its prime minister recently vowing an attack on the NATO ally would end the alliance.
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Maduro Jail Time?
Nicolás Maduro appeared in a Manhattan federal courthouse Monday, pleading not guilty to narco-terrorism charges. Traders see a lengthy prison sentence as most likely.
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Stalled IPOs?
With Bill Ackman urging the administration to delay and experts calling the timeline "extraordinarily aggressive," odds for a Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac IPO this year have fallen off a cliff. The most likely company to IPO in 2026? Once Upon a Farm, maker of picky-eater-approved baby snacks.
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Breaking News
Odds
Deel IPO before 2027?
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64%
+44%
Maduro trial scheduled by January 31?
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5%
-49%
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
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