Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. The situations we are monitoring this morning:
Top Stories
Report: Trump Prepping Iran Strikes
On Saturday, the New York Post reported that Trump is "weighing preliminary attack plans" on Iran in support of protesters seeking to topple the regime. Overnight, odds spiked as high as 66% for a U.S. or Israeli strike on Iran this month.
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Khameni
Yet several of Polymarket's sharpest geopolitical traders are betting against a quick fall of the Iranian regime. For example, "Chungguskhan" has bet over $240k that Khamenei will hold on through the end of the month.
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KPop
The Golden Globes air tonight at 8pm ET. The most action has been on "Best Animated Motion Picture," with KPop Demon Hunters as the heavy favorite.
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Breaking News
Odds
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?
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17%
+4%
Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?