Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. The situations we are monitoring this morning:
Top Stories
Iran Protests Spread
Protests in Iran have now spread to all main cities and are similar in size to the 2022 Mahsa Amini demonstrations. The death toll has passed 20, but the regime has not yet shut down internet access or fully flooded the streets with security forces, as with previous rounds of protest. Odds have doubled in the past week for Khamenei to leave power by July.
Check odds →
Sharps on Shutdown
Overall, odds of another U.S. government shutdown by end of January are declining. But two of Polymarket's most winning traders, "Domer" and "Slight-" have amassed sizable positions on "Yes." What do they know?
Peep wallet →
Doge Moon Mission
Odds have doubled in early trading for the first ever cryptocurrency-supported moon mission to launch this year. A collab between Dogecoin, SpaceX, and the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, the Doge-1 moon mission aims to put a small imaging satellite into lunar orbit.
Check odds →
Breaking News
Odds
Will Trump establish a Gaza "Board of Peace" by March 31?
View market →
85%
+14%
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?
View market →
53%
+14%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?