Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. The situations we are monitoring this morning:
Top Stories
Bondi on the Brink?
Attorney General Pam Bondi has rocketed to most likely Trump cabinet member to leave the administration first. This follows a WSJ report that Trump is annoyed by "what he sees as Bondi's failure to quickly and effectively prosecute the investigators who had pursued him for years, including former FBI Director James Comey and New York Democratic Attorney General Letitia James."
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Iran Strikes Imminent?
Odds have shifted to favor a more likely near-term strike against Iran by the United States and/or Israel, as Trump says the military is looking at "very strong options."
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Earnings Season
JP Morgan surprised the market this morning by missing GAAP earnings. But this has not hurt traders' optimism about the other companies reporting this week. Full Polymarket corporate earnings calendar after the jump.
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Breaking News
Odds
Will the US next strike Iran on January 13, 2026 (ET)?
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5%
-20%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?