Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. What's happening today:
Top Stories
Wiles Gone Wild
A Vanity Fair profile has catapulted White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles to the most likely to be first out of the Trump cabinet. In the piece, Wiles is quoted saying Trump has "an alcoholic's personality," reveals internal divisions over tariffs, and takes shots at JD Vance, Elon Musk, and other members of the administration. Following the piece, her odds of being out first went up more than 9x.
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Kushner Pulls Out
Odds of Netflix closing the Warner Brothers Discovery deal shot up 45% yesterday on reports that a private equity firm owned by Jared Kushner, pulled its financial backing from the rival $104b bid from Paramount Skydance.
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Trump Surprise Address
Trump has scheduled a surprise address to the nation tonight at 9 pm EST. The White House has not revealed the topic, but Polymarket traders think he's most likely to mention inflation, "the border" and the big beautiful bill. Trump is least likely to mention Bitcoin, Syria, and the "green new scam."
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Breaking News
Odds
Will Elon and DOGE cut 100-150k employees in 2025?