🔮 Polygraph / All I Want for Christmas is to Destroy the EU
Friday, December 12, 2025
Polygraph by Polymarket
December 12th, 2025
Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. What's happening today:
Top Stories
Making Europe Great Again
A new report alleges the Trump Administration is trying to persuade more countries to leave the EU. According to a Defense One report, which administration officials have denied, a classified version of the National Security Strategy aims to persuade Austria, Hungary, Italy and Poland to break away from Brussels. Polymarket traders don't think this will happen - at least next year.
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Happy Not-QE Day
At the last FOMC meeting, where the committee cut rates a quarter point, Powell also announced $40b of bond purchases beginning today. The move, which the Fed is calling "Reserve Management Purchases"(RMP), coincided with a surge in odds for the S&P 500 to hit an all-time high by end of year.
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More Tankers?
Several media outlets are reporting that the U.S. is preparing to seize more oil tankers off the coast of Venezuela. Odds for a second tanker seizure by end of year more than doubled following the news.
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Breaking News
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Will Anthropic have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?
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