Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. What's happening today:
Top Stories
AI
Time's Person of the Year is typically announced between December 6th and 12. Last night, a series of trades by a mysterious new wallet "1944dbb61fa" sent odds for "artificial intelligence" soaring more than 30%. They will win over $52k if they're right.
See wallet →
FOMC Day
The final Fed meeting of the year is today and Powell is widely expected to cut another quarter point. No cut is forecast for January, despite Powell likely to mention "unemployment," "AI," and "layoffs" in the press conference.
Check odds →
Battle of the Kevins
Fed Chair Jay Powell's term expires in May 2026 and Kevin Hassett is the 70%+ favorite in the odds, with Kevin Warsh a distant second. At The Oracle, we spoke with a former Fed official who thinks the bond market is flashing serious warnings signals about Hassett and some surprising longshots that are worth a look.
Read more →
Breaking News
Odds
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?
