Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. What's happening today:
Top Stories
UFO Files?
On Dec 4, the Pentagon's All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office released a grainy, 10-minute video of a speck zipping around on a military sensor screen. The video appears on a page titled "UAP Imagery" and traders are split on whether this counts as Trump releasing "new UFO files." Judge for yourself at the discussion page.
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SpaceX
SpaceX, which has 80-90% market share in the space launch market and owns the Starlink space internet service, is reportedly planning an IPO in mid-to-late 2026. Media reports have cited $800b as a target for the IPO, but Polymarket traders think its more likely for the listing to either be postponed, or price much higher: boom or bust scenarios.
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Starship
Elon Musk has bet the future of SpaceX on the success of Starship, a huge new rocket model which can launch 100 ton payloads and Musk says will be capable of reaching Mars. Roughly 6 out of the 11 Starship test flights have been successful, and the next test is scheduled for Q1 of next year. Will Starship clear the pad?
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Breaking News
Odds
Will ChatGPT reach 1b monthly active users in 2025?
