at and t cellular: Did a bank just blow up?

Did a bank just blow up?

Monday, December 29, 2025

Polygraph by Polymarket

Polygraph by Polymarket

December 29th, 2025

Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. What we're watching today:

Top Stories

Top news image

Silver Bust?

The silver market has seen insane volatility over the past week, with the metal jumping 10% before retracing the move in a violent dip. As we write, silver is trading down ~7% at $72.19 / oz. Polymarket traders expect a recovery to above $80 by end of January 2026.

Bank Failure?

The second prong of the rumors are that the silver trade has caused a major bank or trading desk to blow up. Odds for a U.S. bank failure in 2026 spiked as much as 60% this morning before retracing violently.The potentially busted banks are not FDIC-insured, which is the resolution source for this polymarket.

Panic Button

Another way to gauge stress in the market is in the odds for a NYSE market-wide circuit breaker in 2026. These trading halts are triggered by a 7% or greater intraday drop in the S&P 500 index. This polymarket has been particularly volatile in December, seeing jumps of 10% or more.

Breaking News

Odds

Brian Armstrong out as Coinbase CEO before 2027?

View market →

22%

-15%

Will the RSF capture Kadugli by January 31?

View market →

20%

-2%

Will there be at least 2050 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025?

View market →

57%

-4%

See all Breaking →

Ending Soon

Ends In

What day will the Lighter airdrop be?

1d

Next US x Venezuela military engagement on...?

1d

Who will Trump talk to in December?

1d

Which company has second best AI model end of December?

1d

See all Ending Soon →

New

Listed

Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota?

1d ago

Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by...?

1d ago

What will Trump say during Netanyahu event on Monday?

1d ago

See all New →

Hot Polymarkets

Volume

Fed decision in January?

$2.53M

Super Bowl Champion 2026

$1.84M

See all Hot Polymarkets →

Top Sports

Starts In

Atalanta BC vs. FC Internazionale Milano - More Markets

4h

Rams vs. Falcons

10h

Magic vs. Raptors

9h

Capitals vs. Panthers

9h

See all Top Sports →

Whale Moves

"No" MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025?

lfg321

"No" Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025?

bobe2

"No" Maduro out in 2025?

tutrucks

See all Whale Moves →

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posted by June Lesley at 7:02 AM

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