Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. What we're watching today:
Top Stories
Daycare Drama
Independent journalist Nick Shirley released a viral investigation on fraud in Minnesota's taxpayer‑funded childcare programs, centering on an apparently empty Minneapolis daycare that has received millions in public funds. Charges are likely in this case.
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90% Complete
2026 Ukraine ceasefire odds are up 10% on Zelenskyy's visit to Mar-a-Lago today to discuss Trump's peace plan amid heavy Russian aerial bombardment of Kiev. Zelenskyy has called the Trump plan roughly "90%" complete.
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California Billionaires
The NYT reports that California billionaires including Google's Larry Page and Peter Thiel are considering leaving the state over a proposed wealth tax. The measure would impose a 5% tax on state residents worth more than $1b. Odds the tax passes are up 6% in recent days.
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Breaking News
Odds
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?
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22%
-1%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by January 31?