By Conor Orr Back in March, Florida State held its pro day on campus in Tallahassee. The main attractions for most talent evaluators were cornerback Azareye'h Thomas, who would be drafted in the third round by the Jets, and defensive tackle Joshua Farmer, a future Patriots fourth-rounder. But among the 18 players who worked out that day, the one who may end up having the biggest impact on the 2025 NFL season is kicker Ryan Fitzgerald—and not because, as coverage of the event noted, he nailed a 68-yard field goal in front of scouts. After most attendees had left, Fitzgerald had an hour-long semiprivate meeting with a few curious NFL team reps. Dan Orner, a private kicking coach who had been working with Fitzgerald for a few years, says scouts from the Browns and Giants asked his pupil to go through an additional battery of workouts that showcased what Orner calls the kicker's "bag of tricks." For a year, Fitzgerald and Orner had been practicing ways to "knuckleball" a kickoff, with just this moment in mind. The importance of that conversation would become clear less than two weeks later, when NFL owners voted at their annual meeting on April 1 to tweak the touchback rule: Offenses would now get the ball at the 35-yard-line rather than the 30. (You may have missed the change at the time since everyone was screaming about the legality of the Eagles' Tush Push, which was hotly debated at the meetings.) Over the last five seasons, drives that began at the 30-yard line scored a touchdown or field goal at a rate of 37.4%. Drives that began at the 35-yard line scored at 44.8%. A touchback that put the ball at the 32 or 33 might still have made kicking the ball out of the end zone a smart play. But inside the NFL analytics community, the consensus is that the five-yard difference equated to a statistically significant addition of expected points. Suddenly teams were far more wary of handing an opponent a touchback, and some of them became extremely interested in alternative kickoffs that would hit the ground in the landing zone and allow the coverage team to leave its stationary position. A ball that bounced unpredictably and was difficult to field would be a significant bonus. |
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| By Conor Orr Welcome to Week 10 of the Power Rankings. Like the globe at the end of Pangea, we've broken off into separate nations. In this case, two of them: a land of teams that are legitimately fun, interesting and competitive, and another featuring teams who will vanish in our consciousness until the Senior Bowl. That line feels as definitive as it has been in quite some time, ending with the 49ers at No. 15. Luckily for us, the injection of the Colts, Seahawks and Broncos into the top 10 feels permanent to some degree, and we no longer have to worship the aura of the Lions, Bills, Chiefs and Eagles in perpetuity. We have the premier matchup of the year coming in a week … and it has nothing to do with Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen. Not that I'm sick of watching those players—quite the opposite. But I am ready for a new land. A new Earth. |
It's Week 11! Some teams are inching closer to the playoffs, while others like the Giants are moving on to the coaching market. Perhaps the biggest game of the week is an NFC West showdown between the Rams and Seahawks. Both are tied at 7–3 and both are peaking right now. Though that's not the only game between NFC contenders, as the Lions will visit the Eagles for a possible playoff preview on Sunday Night Football. Over in the AFC, the Chiefs have won nine consecutive AFC West titles, but they are 2.5 games behind the Broncos heading into their matchup in Denver on Sunday. |
We're past the midway point of the season. The playoff picture is starting to take shape. You have questions. I have answers. From Aaron Driskell (@A_a_ron_D): Who wins the AFC West and why? The Chiefs, Aaron. Maybe it's blind faith in Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, but this is how I operated with Tom Brady and Bill Belichick over the years. I really don't care that much about them losing a regular-season game or two—and by the way, their four losses this year came by a total of 19 points. Meanwhile, their wins have come by 13, 17, 13, 31 and 21 points. They travel to Denver on Sunday and then face the Colts. So this isn't going to be easy. However, they play the Broncos twice, and the Chargers once, and I'd say they're more complete than either of those teams. They don't have the devastating season-ending injuries that the Chargers have at a key spot (tackle, in this case). And they don't have a problem area like the Broncos' struggling passing game. So, I'll take the Chiefs with 11 wins, capturing the division on tiebreakers, and returning to the conference title game, which would be their eighth in a row. | Tork Mason/USA TODAY Network (Goodell); Josh Morgan/USA TODAY Network (Trump) |
By Michael Rosenberg President Donald Trump would like a football stadium named after him, according to ESPN and anybody who has ever met him. Trump showed up Sunday in the box of Commanders owner Josh Harris, whose team will play in the new stadium, and then Trump made his way to Fox's booth in the third quarter, and then, well, that was pretty much it, and judging from the last 10 months, that will remain it. Trump can't quit the NFL, but the NFL has quit him. Yes, most owners will still support him, as most billionaires do. But the NFL itself is providing a blueprint for how to tussle with the President: Don't. Don't argue. Don't engage. Don't even agree with Trump, because once you get into a public conversation with the President, he wins. Trump has used the NFL for political gain and would love to do it again. In fact, he keeps trying to do it again. But NFL commissioner Roger Goodell has kept everybody in line, leaving Trump in the ring alone, looking for somebody to hit. |
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