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Wed, Oct 28

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Welcome back to the Polymarket news skunk works. Today:

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🏦 $100,000 -> $104,899 if the Fed holds rates today.

Top news

Andrew Curran on a possible U.S. ban of Chinese AI models

Chaos in Israel

The unexpected overperformance of Arab parties in yesterday's Israeli election has touched off a coalition-building scramble. Anti-Netanyahu parties now face the choice of working with either Arab parties or Likud to form a government. As votes continue to be tallied, this result leaves a real path for Israel's 77 year-old comeback kid to stay in power.

Bibi next Israeli PM?

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Hung parliament in israel?

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Likud or Yashar in government?

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OSINTdefender on the Red Sea shipping ban

Jawbone

Kevin Warsh holds his fourth FOMC as Fed chair today at 2 PM ET. Traders are highly confident the committee will hold rates steady, but are keeping a close ear on his inflation and AI commentary for insights into December and beyond.

What will Kevin Warsh say at FOMC?

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Fed decision October

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Fed decision December

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NBA: LeBron James Next Team — price history for the leading outcomes

Flávio to Mar-a-Lago?

The NYT is reporting that Flávio Bolsonaro, following his surprise defeat on Sunday, has fled to Miami after having his Brazilian passport cancelled.

Flavio Bolsonaro - Trump meeting this year?

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Chaos in Israel

Wednesday, October 28, 2026

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