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Wednesday, August 19, 2026

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Wednesday, August 19

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Welcome back to your daily bear crawl through the Polymarket trenches.

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🏈 $500 → $5,923: if Seattle wins Big Game '27

Top news

OSINTdefender on the Red Sea shipping ban

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Democratic Socialist Angie Nixon scored a shock upset against her establishment-backed opponent in yesterday's Florida Senate primary. She will go into the general a heavy underdog, as Florida is not nearly as competitive as past cycles.

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Andrew Curran on a possible U.S. ban of Chinese AI models

Cancer jab

Moderna soared over 110% in premarket trading following a successful Phase readout in a personalized mRNA melanoma trial. Polymarket has dozens of drug forecasts live on our healthcare hub.

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NBA: LeBron James Next Team — price history for the leading outcomes

Ghosted

Ketel Marte’s mysterious absence from the D-Backs took another turn Tuesday: After failing to report to Fenway Park on Monday and landing on the restricted list for a “personal matter,” Marte flew back to Phoenix for an MRI on his knee. With Arizona fighting for a Wild Card spot, how are traders responding to the star’s no-show?

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BIGGEST CHANGES IN ODDS TODAY

ODDS

Breaking News

Steve Witkoff — Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

50%

-17%

Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by August 31, 2026?

16%

-28%

Anthropic — Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of August?

94%

+2%

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Last chance

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US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

$2.7M

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October 2026 — In which month will Anthropic IPO?

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Will Smotrich and Ben Gvir run on the same party list?

September 30 — Will Iran target Qatar by...?

14h

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Hot Polymarkets

Fed Decision in September?

$38M

Brazil Presidential Election

$129M

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

$17M

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WHERE THE SPORTS MONEY IS

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Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs BoomBoys (BO3) - The International Playoffs

$711k

UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion

$11M

2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)

$7.6M

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🍁🤎 The Autumn Edit Launches Tomorrow

Wednesday, August 19, 2026

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