Well, I hope I was wrong when I wrote yesterday that I expected Spain-France to be the better of the two World Cup semifinals.
It was a great game for Spain, at least. The Spaniards were clearly the superior team in the 2–0 victory, even if many of the underlying stats were fairly equal. Both teams had 10 shot attempts, and Spain held the slightest advantage in possession (51%). France actually held the edge in touches inside the box (19–13), but that’s a bit deceptive. Spain was much more dangerous throughout the game, accumulating 1.63 expected goals to France’s 0.31.
It was incredible to see France, which had marched through the tournament with relative ease, suddenly rendered completely inept. Spain was much more fluid on offense, and continued to be impressively stout on defense. Spain has now recorded a clean sheet in six of its seven games at this World Cup, with the only blemish being Belgium’s first-half goal in the quarterfinal.
Spain will face the winner of this afternoon’s England-Argentina game, and you have to think Spain will be the favorite in the final no matter what the matchup is. England and Argentina have both had concerning performances earlier in the tournament. England couldn’t break through in a 0–0 draw against Ghana in the group stage, then needed to mount a furious late comeback to beat DR Congo in the first knockout stage match. Argentina, meanwhile, managed only narrow wins in its three knockout matches against Cabo Verde, Egypt and Switzerland. (The Cabo Verde and Switzerland games required extra time.)
But if we’ve learned anything in this World Cup, it’s that it doesn’t matter who the favorite is. Spain, England and Argentina have all been taken to the limit by underdogs in this tournament. It’d be foolish to say with any certainty what will happen on Sunday in New Jersey.
